Labour Automation vs Growth

Automation in oil and gas reduced labour needed to extract and produce oil. Oil as a product is not a platform-platform. Oil usage cannot induce demand for ever more oil by being a medium for platforms that can recursively host more platforms of products. Because oil does not induce exponential demand, then automation has a good chance of reducing labour down.

The flip side is that platform-platforms can recursively host more platforms of products. So platform-platforms has a chance to induce exponential demand, and so while automation reduces labour per unit produced, on the whole the exponential demand for units can balance out if not even increase labour required industry-wide.

C compilers are not platform-platforms. Compilers in general basically eliminated all assembly programming labour. The reason there are more programmers now than when assembly language reigned supreme is not because compiler automation freed up labour for more creative things. The reason is more because that other platform-platforms like the internet and operating systems induced exponential demand for software.

Other examples of automation that are not platform-platforms and in fact eliminated a lot of labour include:

• Manufacturing automation
• Bookbinding automation (replaced by printing presses)
• Telephone switchboard automation (replaced by digital systems)

Jevons Paradox states that increased efficiency leads to increased consumption.  i.e. as X becomes more efficient, more X will be used. Substitute X with:

• Oil
• Gas
• Electricity
• Microsoft Office

But software developers? Or assembly line workers? USA is manufacturing more than ever, but is employing fewer manufacturing workers than ever. Maybe AI will allow us to  substitute "manufacturing" with "software developing" in that sentence.

Jevon's Paradox "works" only for items that consumers actually want. If extreme environmentalism "won", gas usage would go down no matter how efficient gas engines get. If coal-powered SUVs became unreasonably ultra trendy, coal use would go up regardless of how inefficient coal was.

Software development and manufacturing workers are not goods that consumers want. They want what's produced. And if AI can produce it cheaper with fewer humans involved and without animal testing, then consumers would want that instead.